The Art and Science of Intuitive Decision Making

At age 16, Albert Einstein had a puzzling thought, what would a light beam look like if you could travel alongside it ? Over the next decade, as a he gained a much deeper understanding of physics, the question continued to bother him. It was a question, he came to realize, that revealed an inconsistency in the views held by his fellow physicists. They were convinced—quite sensibly, most people would say—that time is absolute, that it passes at the same rate for everyone, regardless of where they are or how they happen to be moving.

While working as a clerk at the patent office in Berne, Switzerland, Einstein threw himself into the task of resolving this inconsistency. After a year of intense but fruitless effort, he was ready to give up. As a last gasp measure, he decided to describe the problem and his efforts to solve it to his friend Michele Besso. They met on a beautiful spring morning in 1905. During their conversation, Einstein later wrote, “a storm broke loose in my mind”. It dawn on him that he could resolve the inconsistency by giving up the assumption that time absolute. He went home to ponder this insight and the next day paid Besso another visit. Without even saying hello, Einstein blurted out, “Thank you. I’ve completely solved the problem.” Five weeks later, Einstein sent off the paper containing his solution and thereby laid the foundation for the theory of relativity.

Introduction:
When do you get your best ideas? When do you have your “Aha!” moment?

It’s a well-known secret that great ideas come to you as flashes of insight, often when you least expect them. It’s probably happened to you—in the rest-room, shower, or while watering your plants, stepping onto a train, or stuck in traffic, falling asleep, swimming, watching sunrise or sunset, or brushing your teeth in the morning. Suddenly it hits you. It all comes together in your mind. You connect the dots. It can be one big “Aha!” or a series of smaller ones that together help you in your decision making. The fog clears and you see what to do. You decide. It seems so obvious. A moment before you had no idea. Now you do.

If this kind of flash of insight has ever happened to you, welcome to the club. Consider some of the greatest achievements in human history, through the ages, this “flash” has been a key element: how Einstein discovered theory of relativity, how Steve Jobs designed iPhone, how Bill Gates founded Microsoft, how the Google folks conquered the Internet, and so on. It’s how innovators get their innovations, how artists get their creative ideas, how visionaries get their vision, how scientists make their discoveries, and how good ideas of every kind arise in the human mind.

Historically, you will find reference to flashes of insight in eastern philosophy (Sun Tzu’s The Art of War from China-450BC, Miyamoto Musashi’s Book of five rings from Japan-1645 and the classic Bhagavadgita from India-400BC), western classical military strategy, global business strategy, the grand history of scientific discovery, and the newer field of cognitive psychology, as well.
Fast forward to 21st century, behavioral, cognitive and neurosciences have made great strides in explaining how these “flashes of insight” work.

Our conscious mind is only able to process approximately 50 bits of information a second, while our unconscious mind processes approximately 11 million bits per second. This means our unconscious mind processes information 220 thousand times faster than the conscious mind.

Sometimes our conscious mind picks up messages from the subconscious, understandings about a particular situation that we can’t find any real rational basis for but turn out to be true. We often call these experience “Hunch, Gut Feeling or Intuition”. Whatever name you want to call it by doesn’t really matter. The important point is that this is a vast and powerful resource of the human mind and can give you access to knowledge almost instantly that is out of reach of our logical, conscious mind.

Here’s an example;
You are talking to someone and they are lying to you, but covering up it very well. There are subtle cues given off by the body when someone is being dishonest, and your subconscious will pick up on these, but in most cases it won’t override the constant stream of conscious thought along with all the beliefs and pre-conceptions you have about the person you are speaking to, so those messages get ignored. Now people with a strong intuition will be far more likely to naturally pick up on this feeling that something isn’t quite right. But what about the rest of us ? What if your intuition isn’t quite as good as you’d like it to be ?

Well the good news is your intuition can be developed, nurtured and engaged in real-world decision making !

Most organizations today are facing fast-paced, dynamic change and rising uncertainty in business environment. Organizations, big and small, depend every day on the ability of their leaders and staff to make good decisions in crisis situations. This is particularly so, for the armed forces, police, fire brigade, hospitals and other emergency services.

The threat of high decision costs, increased time pressure, inadequate information and fast-paced change, along with other dynamic factors triggered by new economic and technological forces have exacerbated the need for better decision making tools that will perform satisfactorily under ambiguous conditions.

Since many of the requirements for rationality are becoming more difficult to satisfy, organizations have begun to embrace more holistic approaches to decision making. These factors have led management researchers to question the effectiveness of rational decision-making as the only viable alternative. New conceptual frameworks include exploration of less tangible concepts, such as intuition.

However, in recent years there has been resurgence of interest in intuition, perhaps because of some dissatisfaction with rationality (management studies have shown that linear rational models do not perform satisfactorily for businesses operating under rising pressure and ambiguity. rational decision-making strategies have failed to reach the 50% success mark). Some psychologists are now arguing that much of cognition occurs automatically outside of consciousness and in the realm of intuition.

Mostly, decision-making processes are partially driven by emotion, imagination, and memories crystallized into occasional insights. A typical multidimensional approach to decision making should encompass rationality, as well as heuristics, insight, and intuition

Intuition is a non-sequential information processing mode, which comprises both cognitive and affective elements and results in direct knowing without any use of conscious reasoning. Knowledge of intuition has made significant advances in recent years, and it can now be understood as a composite phenomenon involving interplay between knowing (intuition-as-expertise) and sensing (intuition-as-feeling).

This program is based on extensive research into intuitive decision-making and judgement, catalyzed by recent developments in behavioral, cognitive and neuro-sciences and business psychology, reinforced by the recent advances in decision support systems in using such an integrated model for the development of decision programs.

Exemplary personalities and their thoughts on Intuition:
 Albert Einstein (Theoretical physicist who is widely considered one of the greatest physicists of all time. Best known for the theory of relativity, Nobel Prize in Physics for his explanation of the photoelectric effect and "for his services to Theoretical Physics".) «The only real valuable thing is intuition. There is no logical way to the discovery of these elemental laws. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order lying behind the appearance.

 John Naisbitt (Former executive with IBM and Eastman Kodak, American writer in the area of futures studies. Author of several international best sellers like "Megatrends" and "Re-inventing the Corporation". «Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in the new information society precisely because there is so much data.»

 Alexis Carrel (French surgeon, biologist and eugenicist, Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine): «All great men are gifted with intuition. They know without reasoning or analysis, what they need to know. Intuition comes very close to clairvoyance; it appears to be the extrasensory perception of reality.»

 Henry Reed (British poet): «Intuition is the very force or activity of the soul in its experience through whatever has been the experience of the soul itself. It is as if the intuitive sense acting through the soul is what makes the raw events into food for the soul.»

 Immanuel Kant (German philosopher): Intuition and concepts constitute... the elements of all our knowledge, so that neither concepts without an intuition in some way corresponding to them, nor intuition without concepts, can yield knowledge.

 George Crumb (American composer of modern and avant garde music): In general, I feel that the more rationalistic approaches to pitch-organization, including specifically serial technique, have given way, largely, to a more intuitive approach.

 Robert Graves (English poet, scholar, and novelist): «Intuition is the supra-logic that cuts out all the routine processes of thought and leaps straight from the problem to the answer.»

 Lao Tzu (ancient Chinese philosopher): The power of intuitive understanding will protect you from harm until the end of your days.

 Anne Wilson Schaef (writer and lecturer): «Trusting our intuition often saves us from disaster.»

 Andie MacDowell (American screen actress): I think women have an innate ability to be intuitive with people that they truly love, but they have to trust that inner voice, and I think it is there. I think we are more intuitive than men.

Key References:
 Agor, W. H. (1986 January/February). How Top Executives Use Their Intuition to Make Important Decisions. Business Horizons, 29(1), 49-53.

 Dane, E., & Pratt, M. (2004). Intuition: Its boundaries and role in organizational decision-making. Academy of Management Proceedings, 1, 1-6.

 Janney, J. J., Dess, G. G. (2004 November). Can real-options analysis improve decision-making? Promises and pitfalls. Academy of Management Executive, 18(4), 60-75.

 Fredrickson, J. W. (1983). Rationality in Strategic Decision Processes. Academy of Management Proceedings, 17-21.

 Ireland, R. D. & Miller, C. C. (2004, November). Decision-making and firm success. Academy of Management Executive, 18(4), 8-12.

 Mankins, M. (2004 May). Making strategy development matter. Harvard Management Update, 9(2), 3-5.

 Mueller, G. C., Mone, M. A., & III, Vincent L. B. (2000). Strategic decision making and performance: Decision processes and environmental effects. Academy of Management Proceedings, 1, 1-6.

 Sadler-Smith, E. & Shefy, E. (2004 November). The intuitive executive: Understanding and applying 'gut feel' in decision-making. Academy of Management Executive, 18(4), 76-91.